用模糊综合评判法预测马尾松毛虫幼虫高峰期发生量

为了提高马尾松毛虫一代、二代幼虫高峰期发生量预报的准确性,为有效防治马尾松毛虫提供科学依据,本文运用模糊综合评判的6个数学模型预测安徽省潜山县马尾松毛虫一代、二代幼虫高峰期的发生量,验证预报1989年、1994年、2002年和2017年一代马尾松毛虫幼虫高峰期发生量,预报结果分别为2级、4级、2级和1级,与实况级别完全吻合,预报结果准确。预报1989年、1994年、2002年和2017年二代马尾松毛虫幼虫高峰期发生量,预报结果依次是4级、5级、2级和1级。同样与实况级别全部相同。预报的准确率为100%,模糊综合评判法是一个运算简便、准确性高的预报方法。     

温室机器人道路识别与路径导航研究——基于红外测距

针对温室内移动机器人的应用需求,提出了一种基于红外线测距的温室机器人自主导航算法,并使用模糊算法对导航误差进行控制,实现了温室机器人的精确自主移动功能。温室机器人导航过程中,当红外线接收管接受到红外线信号时,会产生一个光强电流,电流放大后可以输出一个模拟电压;根据电压值,通过编程计算,利用电压和距离的对应关系,可以得到机器人和标志物的距离误差;距离信息通过串口传输到PC机上,PC机利用模糊控制原理对距离误差进行判断,发出控制指令。实验测试发现:机器人导航的距离偏差平均值为-1.28cm,均方差为2.68,超调较小,可以实现较为精确的导航。     

基于模糊神经网络的智能温室环境控制方案

针对农业温室环境的精确建模和控制问题,提出了一种基于模糊神经网络的智能控制方案。首先,在考虑室内外环境因素下,构建一个有效的温室环境数学模型,获得通风量、喷雾量和加热量的微分表达式;然后,利用一种自适应模糊神经推理系统(ANFIS),以温度和湿度差作为输入,通过神经网络自学习和模糊推理获得控制输出;最后,通过遗传算法优化控制器的输出比例因子,提高控制响应速度和稳定性。实验结果表明:该方案能够快速且稳定地追踪环境设置值,具有很好的控制效果。     

Impact of high temperatures on the marketable tuber yield and related traits of potato

A rapid warming of 2.8–5.3 °C by the end of this century is expected in South Korea. Considering the current temperature during the spring potato growing season (emergence to harvest; ca. 18 °C), which is near the upper limit of the optimum temperature for potato yield, the anticipated warming will adversely affect potato production in South Korea. The present study assessed the impact of high temperature on the marketable tuber yield and related traits of cv. Superior (which makes up 71% of the annual potato production in South Korea) in four temperature-controlled plastic houses and an outdoor field (37.27°N, 126.99°E) during 2015–2016. The target temperatures of the four plastic houses were set to ambient (AT), AT+1.5 °C, AT+3.0 °C, and AT+5.0 °C. The marketable tuber yield was significantly reduced by 11% per 1 °C increase over a temperature range of 19.1–27.7 °C. The negative impact of high temperature was associated not only with the yield loss of total tubers, which was mostly explained by the slower tuber bulking rate, but also the reduced marketable tuber ratio under temperatures above 23 °C, which was mainly attributed to the reduced number of marketable tubers (r = 0.79***). Under moderate temperatures below 23 °C, the source limited the number of marketable tubers without reducing the marketable tuber ratio. In contrast, the number of marketable tubers was limited by the marketable tuber set at the early growth stage rather than the source under the higher temperatures, which resulted in the reduction in the marketable tuber ratio below 56%. These results suggest that the objectives of breeding and agronomic management for adapting to the rapid warming in South Korea should include maintaining the ability to form tubers at the early growth stage under high temperatures, as well as the photosynthetic capacity and sink strength of the tubers.     

水泵机组状态监测与故障诊断系统研究

从20世纪60年代到21世纪，我国的泵站工程为输水、供水以及防洪减灾提供了有力保障。针对水泵机组的状态监测与故障诊断进行研究，建立水泵机组状态监测与诊断的软件及各分析模块与数据库，进行机组性能的预测研究，为水泵机组的状态维修提供支持。     

Artificial reef placement: a red snapper,Lutjanus campechanus,ecosystem and fuzzy rule‐based model

Abstract This study on reef placement involves two aspects: (1) the development of a bioenergetics model for red snapper, Lutjanus campechanus (Poey), in Gulf of Mexico waters off the coast of Alabama, where significant numbers of artificial reefs are thought to exist, and (2) a fuzzy rough set model by which parameters determined from the bioenergetics model can provide a decision tool for optimally spacing artificial reefs during deployment. The bioenergetics and consumption rates of L. campechanus by age class foraging on artificial reefs in the Gulf of Mexico off the coast of Alabama provided input into the fuzzy rule‐based model. After conducting multiple simulations, highest certainty in optimal reef spacing was achieved for reef distances between 0.50 and 0.95 km such that no more than two fit within a 1‐km² area. Results can inform fisheries managers about placement of artificial reefs to affect the health and survival of reef‐associated species.     

保定地区几个早熟苹果品种(系)生长观察

为筛选适宜保定地区栽植的早熟苹果品种,以嫁接在SH40中间砧上的不同早熟苹果品种(系)为试材,测定了不同品种(系)早熟苹果树体生长发育指标和果实品质。结果表明:除嘎啦早熟变异外,其他供试品种(系)树体生长较好,3年生时Xu2-7、Xu3-2树高330.0~352.5 cm,4年生时为394.0~417.5 cm,Xu3-2、藤牧1号、信浓红4年生为336.5~381.0 cm。4年生时,干径以Xu2-5最大;短枝、中枝、叶丛枝均以Xu2-5最多,长枝以Xu2-7最多,总枝量以Xu2-5最多;藤牧1号短枝所占比例最高(57.4%)。应用模糊综合评判法得出Xu2-5、Xu2-7、信浓红、藤牧1号果实品质较高。     

基于模糊物元的哈尔滨公交企业运营管理评价

根据哈尔滨市公交企业的特点和调研数据,按照平衡计分卡的“财务、顾客、内部流程、学习与成长”四个维度,构建评价指标体系;提出公交企业规模划分标准;应用模糊物元法建立评价模型,对典型的国营和民营公交企业运营管理水平进行评价;采用熵权法计算指标权重,降低人为因素对评价结果的影响.结果表明,评价对象的运营管理均达到“良好”水平.     

模糊综合评判在板材气味评价中的应用

【目的】室内空气质量对人体健康影响巨大,家具板材是否环保至关重要。【方法】通过对板材气味综合评价,指导消费者对家具板材进行科学选取。以三聚氰胺贴面刨花板与中纤板及其素板为研究对象,用微池萃取仪采集气体,通过GC-MC-O嗅闻气味化合物种类及强度并分析其浓度,将模糊综合评判法应用于以上板材的气味评价。【结果】三聚氰胺贴面刨花板的模糊综合指数为2.885 0,各等级下的隶属度分别为0.208 7、0.225 6、0.207 4、0.188 6、0.169 7。刨花板素板的模糊综合指数为3.058 0,各等级下的隶属度为0.162 0、0.210 5、0.226 1、0.210 3、0.191 1。三聚氰胺贴面刨花板与三聚氰胺贴面中纤板气味评价等级为二级,质量良好,刨花板素板与中纤板素板气味评价等级为三级,质量合格。【结论】两种素板的模糊综合指数均偏高,其中含有危害性物质的释放,对板材进行贴面处理能够降低板材的危害性。本实验选用的中纤板的模糊综合指数稍高于刨花板。模糊综合评判法用科学的定量手段刻画板材气味评价中定性问题,使定性与定量分析融合。模糊综合评判在板材气味评价中考虑了多个气味化合物对板材的综合影响和各种气味化合物的毒性,它引导人们从另一角度客观评价板材质量,是一种可借鉴的好方法。     

基于熵算法的股票指数高频数据复杂度测算与评价

在日内高频环境下检验基于兼容法的柯尔莫哥洛夫熵、样本熵和模糊熵等复杂度测算方法对我国沪深300股票指数的测算效率，并运用筛选后的有效算法分阶段研究和比较了序列复杂度的变化过程与变化幅度.结果表明，模糊熵算法是一种更适用于我国沪深300股票指数的有效复杂度测算方法，其对相似容忍度的敏感性更低，测度值连续性更好.随时间推移，我国沪深300股票指数复杂度整体呈上升趋势,而相较于发达市场甚至周边新兴市场其复杂度偏低.